The U.S Non-Farm Payrolls will be released Friday, 2nd of August 2019 13:30 GMT and is a key economic indicator that can cause volatility in the markets.
What to Expect this Month?
Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to have increased by 164,000 last month, as indicators point to another solid month of job expansion, yet down on the previous months report that came in at 224,000.
The ADP Employment report improved to 156k from an upwardly-revised reading of 112k last month and the ISM Manufacturing Survey employment component fell to 51.7, down nearly 3 points from last month’s 54.5 reading, whilst the four week moving average of initial unemployment claims remains near a half-century low at 211,500.
This report is being touted as crucial following the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, which was also followed up by a rambling press conference from Fed chairman Powell, living up to his “cover-all-bases”. During the press conference he also emphasized that it wasn’t a one-and-done decision, suggesting traders could still see another interest rate reduction (or two) in the coming months.
Further to the Fed decisions, equity markets tanked after Donald Trump imposed 10% tariff on another 300 billion US dollar worth of Chinese goods that were exempt from duties to date. New tariffs came as a surprise just after a delegation of US officials returned from Shanghai. As it stands, it seems there is no willingness to resolve this yearlong trade dispute.
Opportunities Around the NFP Reports:
Regardless of the results of the Non Farm Payrolls, the markets always experience moves immediately after the release which offer traders excellent short-term trading opportunities. Positive or negative reports will affect market sentiment which can create new trends and trading opportunities.
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