The U.S Non-Farm Payrolls will be released Friday, 5th of July 2019 12:30 GMT and is a key economic indicator that can cause volatility in the markets.
What to Expect this Month?
The markets were quiet on Thursday as the USA celebrated independence day, the European equity markets were flat and the Asian markets also opened flat on Friday due to a lack of any indications overnight, the GBP was subdued as a no-deal brexit edges closer.
Most experts, economists and researchers have an expectation for the Non-Farm Payrolls to increase to around 160k in June, this follows a very weak report of 75k in May. Additionally, the experts are forecasting the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.6% in June.
Some banks have shown some concerns by highlighting that the labour market has started to show some weakness, so it is important to monitor employment growth, which is an important recession indicator. On average, the monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls has declined to 164,000 during 2019, from 223,000 in 2018.
The US dollar is currently trading slightly stronger when comparing to its G10 counterparts ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls data. A report below 100K would be considered very poor, and as a result, could keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves in charge of the market. On the other hand, a stronger-than-expected figure could pause the rush into the US bonds and investors may change their dovish Fed expectations before the release of the FOMC meeting minutes next Wednesday.
Opportunities Around the NFP Reports:
Regardless of the results of the Non Farm Payrolls, the markets always experience moves immediately after the release which offer traders excellent short-term trading opportunities. Positive or negative reports will affect market sentiment which can create new trends and trading opportunities.
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