The U.S Non-Farm Payrolls will be released Friday, 3rd of May 2019 12:30 GMT and is a key economic indicator that can cause volatility in the markets.
What to Expect this Month:
The previous two employment reports have failed to be consistent, with up and down data being released, however the US employment market is forecasted to be stabilising back to an overall positive trend. This months report is expected to deliver 185K new jobs, the Unemployment Rate should be stable at record 3.8% lows and Average Hourly Earnings set be up 3.3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month.
The previous two employment reports have failed to be consistent, with up and down data being released, however the US employment market is forecasted to be stabilising back to an overall positive trend. This months report is expected to deliver 185K new jobs, the Unemployment Rate should be stable at record 3.8% lows and Average Hourly Earnings set be up 3.3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month.
These figures
are positive and indicate a positive labour market, and in turn this would help
the Federal Reserve avoid an interest rate cut, after recent speculation,
especially with President Trump tweeting support of an interest rate cut. However,
there are also points of concern in the recent data, with Jobless Claims rise
during the last couple of weeks above their expected figures.
The Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's optimism following Wednesday’s FOMC press
conference was reinforced by non-farm productivity and factory orders which
improved from the prior period. Since then, the
Euro has been hardest hit against the dollar as Eurozone data remains weak
giving the dollar a strong advantage, investors continued to buy the dollar ahead
on the NFP.
As the new jobs
figure is expected to remain stable, investors will be looking mainly at wage
growth. If the Non Farm Payrolls don’t disappoint and average hourly earnings
rise by 0.3% or more, it is expected that EUR/USD will fall and USD/JPY will
rise. If wage growth falls short, EUR/USD should rally and provide some
short-term relief.
Opportunities around the NFP Reports:
Regardless of the results of the Non Farm Payrolls, the markets always experience moves immediately after the release which offer traders excellent short-term trading opportunities. Positive or negative reports will affect market sentiment which can create new trends and trading opportunities.
Regardless of the results of the Non Farm Payrolls, the markets always experience moves immediately after the release which offer traders excellent short-term trading opportunities. Positive or negative reports will affect market sentiment which can create new trends and trading opportunities.
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