Non Farm Payroll Alert

The U.S Non-Farm Payrolls will be released Friday, 5th of April 2019 12:30 GMT and is a key economic indicator that can cause volatility in the markets.

What to Expect this Month?

Non-farm payrolls are expected to add 180,000 workers for March, this follows 20,000 in February. Manufacturing employment should rise by 10,000, up from 4,000 in February and the unemployment rate is expected to be stable at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to gain 0.3% on the month, down from 0.4% in February stabilizing the yearly rate to be 3.4%. 

The markets are keen to learn whether February’s dramatic drop to only 20,000 new jobs was a blip or as a more concrete sign of weakness in the US economy, this will be reflected in another month of weak statistics, below the estimated 180K as fore casted. During the past five years the lowest months reports were 2018, 108,000 in September; 2017, 18,000 in September; 2016, 15,000 in May; 2015, 77,000 in March and 2014, 168,000 in February, and on each occasion the following two months delivered better than expected results.

For the past two years, the markets have seen some of the strongest job creation reports for many years, particularly in the manufacturing sectors, however there are several trade and economic issues including negotiations between US-China, the U.K’s withdrawal from the EU and an evident slowdown in global growth that could encourage caution and delayed hiring processes for big companies.

So far, February’s poor figures have not influenced trends dramatically and for the labour markets, there is no evidence that the current trend could change dramatically. However, another report under the expected figures may cause a change in direction. On the other hand, a strong US jobs report could indicate for at least one Fed rate hike this year.

Opportunities Around the NFP Reports:

Regardless of the results of the Non Farm Payrolls, the markets always experience moves immediately after the release which offer traders excellent short-term trading opportunities. Positive or negative reports will affect market sentiment which can create new trends and trading opportunities.