After several weeks of Terresa May facing a barrage of rejection on Brexit deal votes in parliament, the Prime Minister has been to the EU to request a Brexit delay.
The EU has granted a few extra weeks for May to alter her Brexit plan, to get her proposals passed through parliament in order to avoid a no no-deal Brexit, the new deadline has been extended from March 29th to April 12th for the U.K to finally leave the EU.
The Prime Minister has faced a torrid time with the politicians, she needs to convince parliament that the deal is good. At the same momentum is gathering in the U.K public, with sections calling to revoke article 50 or hold a second referendum, in order to remain in the EU.
Currently, the government will be able to request a longer extension during the already extended period if it can “indicate a way forward” and agree to hold European elections. In the unlikely event that May does win the support of the Commons during the next vote on this coming Tuesday, the UK will remain a member state until May 22nd to allow necessary withdrawal legislation to be passed.
Donald Tusk, the European council president said that the options left available to the U.K are “The UK government will still have a choice of a deal, no-deal, a long extension or revoking article 50.” It seems that the EU are willing to display patience till the “very end” to allow the U.K to finalise all aspects.
The negotiations are at a critical moment, and it seems the May has no alternative back-up plan, other than just to try to push through the current deal again, and there seems to be a lack of confidence in the prime minister at home and within the EU leaders.
Tuesday’s vote could prove to be critical, and whatever the decision, traders can expect market volatility once the results of the votes are announced.
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Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell has commented that the central bank has no bias as to whether the next interest rate move will be up or down, but his colleagues are expected to deliver a more aggressive message.
The committee is expected to forecast one interest-rate increase during 2019, and one more in 2020 which is a downgrade on the two proposed for 2019, back in December. Furthermore, the committee is set to add importance to remaining patient regarding future adjustments as well as announcing the end of reducing its $4 trillion balance sheet.
The forecasts from the upcoming report could dampen investors expectations that the Fed may end rate hikes . The two-year U.S Treasury yield have fallen 0.5% since November as growth has slowed globally and central banks are less confident on their outlooks. Many investors may have misjudged the Fed’s tightening plans, and they could announce plans for one or two further hikes this year that may surprise many investors.
Whilst the FOMC may well closely mirror January’s statement, current economic conditions could be lowered. One key indication will be the median economic growth forecast which is likely to be cut to 2.2 percent from 2.3 percent from December and at the same time unemployment could creep higher.
The markets will be looking for changes in the Fed’s tone, as recent data has been unstable suggesting that the Fed could be facing uncertainty regarding the recovery rate and inflation. Global growth has slowed as shown with the recent announcement from the European Central Bank that has cur its forecasts and subsequently implemented a new round of stimulus.
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The U.S Non-Farm Payrolls will be released Friday, 8th of March 2019 13:30 GMT and is a key economic indicator that can cause volatility in the markets.
What to Expect this Month:
The Euro currency suffered heavy losses against the US Dollar this week following the news that the European Central Bank announced a new targeted long-term refinancing program, this news forced the Euro to its lowest point in 17 months and has failed to see a positive trading day since February 26th.
Further losses on the Euro are expected and today’s Non-Farm Payrolls could be the catalyst to drive the single currency lower, should the jobs report be strong. Toady’s figure will be lower than January’s 304K increase as this was much stronger than expected, and the effect of the government shutdown will effect certainly influence today’s report.
Investors will be looking towards a figure of 160K or more in February, and if there is a revision of January’s figures that remains above 200K, investors should be satisfied enough to keep the US Dollar on the up, and put additional pressure on the Euro. There will also be focus on the average hourly earnings, with wage growth expected to pick up in February.
If average hourly earnings growth is 0.3% or better and NFPs rise by 160K or more, EUR/USD could be forced to the 1.10 trading level. The saviour for the Euro could be if the four Week Jobless Claims Rises to 229K from 220K and should a revision of last month’s report reduce the figure to under the 200K mark.
Opportunities around the NFP Reports:
Regardless of the results of the Non Farm Payrolls, the markets always experience moves immediately after the release which offer traders excellent short-term trading opportunities. Positive or negative reports will affect market sentiment which can create new trends and trading opportunities.
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We are happy to announce the inclusion of additionally Liquidity Providers to ensure stability and to deliver excellent order execution for profitable traders.
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Please be reminded that now its the time to claim your February 2019 monthly rebates: 1 pip per lot on Rebate Account, 0.3 pip per lot on Classic Account and $12 per lot on the Super Rebate Account.
To claim your rebates simply send us an email in between the 1st and 5th of each month. Please include your MT4 account number and the number of lots that you have traded.
*Learn more on the new Cash Backs Program – Up to $12 Per Lot!
We are looking forward to hearing from you.
Best regards,
David Bergman
Account Manager
Yadix Forex Broker
Telephone: +44(0) 20 3239 6117
E-mail: support@yadix.com
Skype: yadix.forex
