The European Central Bank has complete control over monetary
policy over the thirteen member states in the Euro Zone. Each month the
ECB meets to keep inflation within the targeted levels.
Regardless of the ECB decides to raise, lower or maintain
the interest rate levels, the decision always has an effect on Euro related Forex pairs.
When the ECB increases the interest rates:
When the interest rate is increased, the ECB is selling
government securities to large financial firms and these firms are paying for
the securities in the Euro currency. This reduces the amount of the currency in
circulation and decreasing supply to raise demand, and subsequently increasing
the value of the currency.
When the ECB decreases the interest rates:
In this case, the ECB floods the market with the Euro
currency, which is done by purchasing government securities from financial companies.
These transactions are paid for in Euro and therefore, increasing the amount of
Euro in circulation. because supply
increases, the value decreases.
How do Forex markets
react to ECB interest rate decisions?
Before the interest rate decision is released, many traders
operate in the market bases on rumours and speculation. This can create
volatility even days before the decision is due. This in turn creates market
movements that are ideal for scalpers and intraday traders.
After the decision from the ECB, If the market’s
expectations are different from the actual rate decision from the ECB, there can be some excellent trading
opportunities for savvy traders.
For example, if there is an interest hike expected, but the
ECB decides to cut the rate, there is a window of 1-2 hours where selling the Euro can be successful.
On the other hand, if there is a cut expected, but the ECB
decides to increase the interest rate, traders may want to place a short-term
long position on the Euro for 1-2 hours to benefit from the expected
price movement.
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