Thursday, April 2, 2020

Coronavirus impact is expected to be greater in Q2 2020 that first expected!

In the USA, experts have revised their coronavirus projections, expecting a sharper downturn than originally assumed, with jobless rate topping out at an estimated 15%, a record 34% drop in GDP during Q2 (the worst period in post-World War II history), but also estimating a 19% rebound in Q3.

3.3 million Americans filed for first-time unemployment claims last week, with a further 5.5 million expected in this week’s report on Thursday. The full year forecast are at a 6.2% decline in GDP, the worst the US has experienced. The second-quarter drop is expected to be three time worse than previous lows of 10% set in the first quarter of 1958. The Great Recession low of 8.4% hit the US in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The sharp rebound, is expected to follow however, supported by fiscal and monetary support. Congress already passed a $2 trillion rescue package and it is expected that other measures on the way specifically aimed at supporting state governments. The Fed also has taken interest rates to near zero and has rolled out a number of other programs aimed at supporting the economy.

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